Saturday, April 4, 2009

Tim Thomas Signing


Note to Bruins Fans: Calm down.

Take a deep breath and go grab yourself some clam chowder. Everything is going to be OK.

It's mixed emotions today in Beantown. The Boston Bruins have reportedly signed Tim Thomas to a 4 year $20M deal that pays the goalie $6M/yr for the first two years, and then $5M and $3M respectively for the following two seasons. Some fans are overwhelmed with excitement about locking up one of the top goalies in the league. Other fans who have become accustomed to getting premier goaltending for Patrick Lalime money, are still in shock over the terms and duration of today's announcement.

Yup, it's a big one; $20M over 4 years. Although this was a bit a a shock to everybody, it is important to break the deal down before making judging it.


Timing
The Bruins took a big risk in signing Thomas before this year's playoff run. Thomas is due to turn 35 on April 15/09 however, and the current CBA states that players signed before their 35th birthday are able to be bought out, if needbe, without penalty to the team's cap. It looks like Chiarelli weighed out his options and wanted to keep the insurance of having a potential buyout down the road.

Money
Just because you were getting a stellar deal on something before, doesn't mean it isn't worth it when you have to pay proper price for it. Although he has never won a playoff series, a cap hit of $5M a year is not a bad deal for a guy who is favoured to win the Vezina and has been this solid for three years running. Bryzgalov got $4.25M from Phoenix; Huet got $5.62M from Chicago; Theodore got $4.5M from Washington. Let's keep things in perspective here folks.

Term
Four years. That's a long time, I agree. Big money/long term deals for goaltenders always make me nervous. It's a crazy position that is all about the mental game. Note that this is a front-weighted contract however, and I highly doubt that Thomas managed to negotiate a no trade clause. If a trade needed to be made, there would be takers for this guy. Even on the fourth and final year of his contract, a team with cap room could be real interested in having this guy for $3M in salary. Worst case scenario is that they work the buy-out option that we discussed earlier. ***UPDATE: SEE BELOW****

Tuukka Rask
I don't want this to be taken the wrong way. I think that Rask is due to be the future of the Boston organization and to date, he hasn't given any reason for us to think otherwise. I'm just not one of those people who sit around at night plaguing comment boards with ridiculous banter about how the current guy filling the roster spot is no good and how the young guy coming up is unproven savoir who will undoubtly lead the organization to the first Stanley Cup available. I have seen it too many times where we sit around touting how great some kid is only to never see those skills come to fruition in the NHL; OR, for us to see those skills come to fruition to a lesser degree, with another team's jersey on. Case in point: Matt Lashoff. Bruins fans have been talking about this guy for FOUR years now. Last I checked however, it looked like he was wearing a different color jersey???

As Brian Burke said ealier this week, the general public vastly underestimates the jump from the minor leagues to the NHL. Is it really a bad thing to ease in your potential franchise goalie? Have we not learned anything from the Carey Price debacle in Montreal? It never hurts to have a mentor for your young star goalie and to have him learn the ropes in the NHL without having to carry the burden of a team's playoff hopes on his shoulders.

It looks like the plan for next year is to have Rask and Thomas split the duties for the big club, with Thomas remaining the starter. It seemed to work out well this year, so why not keep the same formula? Rask's entry level contract, which holds a cap hit of $3.2M with bonuses, is due to expire at the end of next season. It will be interesting to see what kind of 2nd contract he gets based on his performance next year with the 25 to 30 games he should see. If he does indeed immediately become a superstar, then the Bruins will be stuck in the horrid situation of having two star goaltenders. From a cap perspective it wouldn't work, but as I've stated, I highly doubt that Thomas was able to negotiate a no trade clause.

Kessel and Krejci Signings
As I said in my earlier article here on CheckingFromBehind (Too Much Honey in the B-Hive), the Bruins have some hard decisions to make. They have groomed too much talent for one organization and the cap won't allow to keep it all. Does the Thomas signing change things? Well, not really. Although Boston fans were probably hoping that they would somehow keep reaping the benefits of an underpaid goalie, you can bet that Boston management were well aware that you eventually have to pay for it.

Somebody has to go, and there is a good chance it will be Kessel. He is a pure goal scorer with tons of speed and a deceptive shot, but management knows that not everybody can be kept. Kessel will draw significant interest on the market. Also who will probably be gone is Chuck Kobasew, who's $2.3M cap hit remains attractive. The Bruins will be looking to keep Krejci and the roster and you can also look for Lucic to get signed up this summer.

Conclusion
Maybe Rask is the real-deal-to-be, but Thomas is the real deal now. Having $8.2M in cap space dedicated to the goaltender position is rich, but the Bruins are being cautious in bringing up their star young goalie. In the mean time, they have a veteran all-star who is more than capable in carrying the reins. If Rask doesn't live up to the high expectations, then this signing is a no-brainer. If Rask does live up to expectations after next year, then I highly doubt that the Bruins will keep a $5M back-up around for long; trade and buyout options remain in play. Either way, the goaltending situation in Boston looks real solid for the next few years; is that a bad thing? Having great goaltending doesn't guarantee that you'll win a Stanley Cup, but having poor goaltending pretty much guarantees that you won't.

Peter Chiarelli has slowly gained my trust over the past two years and things are looking good in Beantown so sit back, enjoy your clam chowder, and let's watch the show.


Ryan D. MacIntyre
thejackass@hockeyjackass.com



***UPDATE****

Check that folks! It turns out the Thomas did indeed negotiate a no-movement clause. The Boston Globe have just announced the Bruins gave him the clause for the first three years of the deal. Wow, that definitely puts a different spin on this. I'm not sure what this means for Rask. It looks like the Bruins may have to eventually move him. If he comes out next season with a big year, it will be difficult for the Bruins to sign him, having already committed $5M a year to Thomas. It is easy to picture the two goalies splitting time next year, but I don't know how that would work after Rask's entry level contract expires. Should be an interesting summer in Boston.

No comments:

Post a Comment