Thursday, May 28, 2009

Here We Go Again


At the end of the Stanley Cup finals last year, Pittsburgh fans were quick to say that they'd be back and their team would win it all. I was quick to say that the Penguins would have a hard road back, and that it was unlikely that they'd do it.

Well, the Penguins and the Detroit Red Wings are both back, ready to pick up where they left off last June. Pittsburgh went through the Philadelphia Flyers, Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes to reach the Finals again. Detroit defeated the Columbus Blue Jackets, Anaheim Ducks and Chicago Blackhawks.

This year, the Penguins have the one thing everyone felt they lacked last year: experience. They've been here before. Been so close, and had to live through the sting of watching the Wings hoist the Cup in Mellon Arena. That feeling will be an undercurrent through this sequel.

Since being pushed to a seventh game against the Capitals, Pittsburgh has been on a tear. In the five games they've played since (including game seven), they've outscored their opponent 26-11. The closest was game one against the Hurricanes, when they were still a bit spent from an epic series, but still managed to win 3-2.

Detroit, similarly, received a boost from defeating a highly skilled Ducks team that very nearly won. In the Conference finals, despite injuries to Pavel Datsyuk and Nicklas Lidstrom, the Wings cruised to the Finals against a Chicago team that will be a force of the future.

Now the two teams clash again. With the shorter layoff, Pittsburgh might have the upper hand if Detroit's injury problems are serious. Still, you cannot discount the amazing depth of the Wings. And Marian Hossa now gets to experience this matchup from the other side. Both teams had some serious competition, but both made the Finals fairly easily.

So who wins? Which team has all the right pieces, and has enough left in them? Detroit has home ice advantage, and is 8-1 at Joe Louis, but only 4-3 on the road. Pittsburgh is 6-2 at home, and 6-3 on the road. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are running away with playoff scoring, but both teams have six players in double digits. Chris Osgood has better numbers in goal, but Marc-Andre Fleury has played just as well over the past five games. Detroit's power play is converting at 25.7% to Pittsburgh's 19.3%, but Pittsburgh's penalty kill is better at 83.6% to 73.7%.

Regardless of my prediction, fans are going to be treated to another great round of hockey. This year has been phenomenal in that regard. But inevitably, there has to be one champion. I've held this belief since before the season started, so I'm going to see it through.

Prediction: Detroit in seven

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