Predicting the Playoffs

Predicting the outlook of the upcoming Stanley Cup Playoffs is far easier to do than at first thought. Consider that in the last decade, the minimum average points it took to snag the 8th and final berth to the playoffs per Conference was 91 points; we’ll call this theory “Operation: 91”. Here is how your team must fair in their remaining games in order to capture that playoff spot. Note: Every day I’ll add a new division to the list.


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Atlantic Division

New Jersey Devils

As of today, the Devils sit quietly in 2nd place in the East. They’ve stayed competitive every season despite wacky injuries (Brodeury) and losing defensemen to free agency and retirement (Stevens, Niedermayer, Rafalski), but one thing New Jersey has discovered is a scoring ability while maintaining their sound defensive play. The addition of Brendan Shanahan has also paid dividends in rejuvenating the two-way pressure of Bobby Holik. Shanahan has played just 10 games this season for the Devils, and, while skating along the third line, he’s posted 3 goals and 2 assists in that time while averaging just less than 14 minutes playing time per game. Shanahan has always been a leader, and his presence has sparked the club and added the depth necessary for the playoff push without costing the team assets. How could this ever go wrong?

The Stats:

55GP 35W 17L 3OTL 73P (Home: 17-10-1; Away: 18-7-2; Last 10: 8-2-0)
Streak: Won 2

This team is unbelievable, and perhaps severely underrated this season. With such an empowering Away record, it’s difficult to imagine any team in this year’s playoffs using the phrase “don’t worry, we’ll beat them at home” as they are better on the road. According to the “Operation: 91”, the Devils are just 18 points shy of getting a playoff berth, or 9 wins in their last 27 games. That means that this team can play an abysmal 33 winning % over their remaining games and still crack the post-season.

Prediction: Top 3 Finish

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New York Islanders

The Islanders are a team who always seem to be rebuilding since the lockout. Kyle Okposo was expected to put his mark on the team, but with so little chemistry, it’s difficult for anyone on this club to score – and that is a problem. The Islanders are 3rd Last in the league for goals scored with just 133, and with the injury to Rick Di Pietro they are 3rd in goals against (behind Toronto and Atlanta) with 182. Needless to say, this team will be seller’s at the deadline this season and will look forward to a top 5 pick. I would like to briefly point out that Kurtis McLean, 28 year old native of Kirkland Lake, was called up for a brief two game stint with the club in which he scored a goal and was a +1. With a shooting percentage of 33% perhaps the Islanders would have been better to keep him on the team while he averaged just under 10 minutes of ice time.

The Stats:

54GP 16W 32L 6OTL 38P (Home: 10-12-4; Away: 6-20-2; Last 10: 4-4-2)
Streak: Lost 4

It’s easy to see where the team suffers the most – on the road. It is difficult to try and chase a team out of their own rink, but without maintaining a 0.500 average on the road, it’s no wonder why this team is unable to break out of the basement. They dealt away 3 former first round picks (2 players and a pick) for Ryan Smyth two seasons ago, and have yet to recover from the hit. This team is a few years away from being an impact. In order for this team to make the playoffs, and I mean “just” make the playoffs, is to win 27 of their remaining 28 games. Consider that an impossible task considering the best team in the league to date (SJS) has only played a 0.711 win percentage. Asking this team to accomplish just under a perfect record in the final games is wishful thinking.

Prediction: Bottom 5 Finish

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New York Rangers

The Rangers are in an interesting position. While they lack that pure offensive touch and leadership, their off-season acquisition of Nikolai Zherdev has proven GM Sather still has it, somewhat. His grotesque signings of Drury and Gomez still stick out like a sore thumb and with thoughts of Sean Avery returning to the Big Apple, well, you might as well call it the “Big Sour Apple” when that day arrives – and it looks more and more likely that it will come soon. In their top 6 point producers, only one (Zherdev) is in the + column. Regardless of bringing Redden on board, this team is clearly missing that stay at home defenseman and a number one shooter up front.

The Stats:

55GP 30W 20L 5OTL 65P (Home: 17-8-3, Away: 13-2-2; Last 10: 4-5-1)
Streak: Won 1

While the Rangers do have a somewhat impressive record, what is not looking good for the team is their 1 win in the last 6 games played, during which they were hammered by the Stars 10-2, shutout by the Devils 3-0 and lashed by the Penguins 6-2. To be fair, each of those losses came on the road, and is a department the Rangers have been struggling through lately as they went 3-6-1 on the road since the New Year. In order to maintain a playoff position, the Rangers will have to win 14 of their remaining 27 games. As long as they stay above 0.500 the rest of the way, they’ll maintain that position. Whether or not they can hold onto a top 4 seed in which they would gain home ice advantage (which they need) is another question.

Prediction:: Make the Playoffs, Fall to 6th Seed.

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Philadelphia Flyers

Two years ago, Philly was at the bottom of the league. A flurry of trades, the farewell to Forsberg, and Philadelphia is back on top (it did help that they had Carter and Richards in the system). Last season, they had a trade lined up to send a 1st round pick along with Jeff Carter to the Maple Leafs in return for Tomas Kaberle. Needless to say, the trade fell through (Kaberle said no) and it was the best thing to happen to Philadelphia in years. Jeff Carter is currently 3 goals behind Ovechkin for the scoring lead. Do I need to repeat that? He’s also tied with, guess who, Mike Richards for 2nd place with 4 shorthanded goals. Throw into the mix a healthy Simon Gagne and you got yourself a contending team. Last year, their goaltending was a question mark. One year later, what’s to talk about? Other than the 3rd and 4th line, you’re not going to find a minus player, and the goaltending situation has worked itself out. The average save % between Niittymaki and Biron is 0.912 and the average goals against average is 2.72, how could this team go wrong?

The Stats:

52GP 28W 15L 9OTL 65P (Home: 15-6-3; Away: 13-9-6; Last 10: 5-5-0)
Streak: Won 2

Despite splitting their last 10 games, the Flyers are just 8 points behind the division leading New Jersey Devils, and have 3 games on hand. With 30 games to go, a lot could happen, but the way this team has developed their depth through the young guns with a mix of veteran leadership (Knuble, Timmonen) it’s hard to state that they won’t make the playoffs, let alone go deep. This team is loaded with fire power. They need just 13 wins in their final 30 to solidify a playoff position, but look for this team to make a bit of a splash at the deadline to catch the Devils.

Prediction: 4th Place Finish

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Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh is in an interesting position and while some people question the ethics around the team, there is a simple answer as to why this team is not producing as they did last season. First of all, the injury to Gonchar sidelined their best defenseman for most of the season. On games that were decided by just one goal, Gonchar likely would have aided in a powerplay goal. Consider the trade for Hossa for logic number 2. For his playoff presence, he cost the team Colby Armstrong, who had a ton of chemistry alongside Crosby, and already has 14 goals on a weak Thrashers team. The 26 year old has surpassed his previous year totals of 13 goals in 16 fewer games. If he was playing with Crosby this season, more than likely he would have been on pace to break 30 goals, rather than hit the 20 mark this season. Erik Christensen was dealt in the package, along with Angelo Esposito – for those who either hibernated throughout the Holidays or just aren’t interested in the World Juniors – Esposito was a top 5 player on a highly offensive Team Canada and proved that he had a bit of a mean streak in him. He is likely the worst part of the trade to lose. Making this deal took away some of their depth, not to mention the loss of Laraque, Roberts and Malone for the physical presence, and the Penguins will be another year or two away from recovering from it. It was a risky move, unfortunately, it didn’t pay off, and some tend to wonder how the team would have fared if they left the roster alone.

The Stats:

56GP 27W 24L 5OTL 59P (Home: 15-12-2; Away: 12-12-3; Last 10: 5-4-1)
Streak: Won 1

There are two big upsides to this franchise. The first is Malkin and the second is Crosby. These two have shown that as another year goes by, these two get that much better. They are 1 and 2 in the scoring lead, Malkin leading the rush, and are in the race for the assist lead. Crosby is on pace for 106 points, while Malkin is on pace for around 115, but while they continue to surge offensively, the growing lack of a defenseman to fill the void is more than evident. If this team doesn’t get a big time minute defenseman at the deadline, they’ll have a difficult time securing a spot in the post-season. The question that remains is whether or not trading away assets in order to crack the post-season is the right thing to do.

Prediction: 8th Place Finish, bumping out the Hurricanes. Good luck against Boston.

Stay tuned for the next version featuring the Northeast Division.

Micheal A. Aldred
michealaldred@hotmail.com